The single biggest weight on gold for the past 107 days has just been removed. The US-Iran war is ending — a peace deal was reached over the weekend, Trump ordered the naval blockade lifted, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Gold has responded by climbing to $4,325. The question every buyer and investor is now asking: where does gold go from here? The answer, based on the mechanics now in motion, points firmly higher.
Consider what is about to unfold over the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz reopens, and oil — which was already down more than 6% last week in anticipation of the deal — falls further toward $80 per barrel and potentially below. As oil falls, the energy-driven inflation that has gripped the US economy begins to unwind. Last week’s May CPI confirmed the crucial detail: core inflation was rising just 0.2% month-on-month, meaning the 4.2% headline figure was almost entirely energy-driven. Remove the energy spike, and headline inflation falls rapidly toward 3% and below over the coming months.
This transforms the Federal Reserve’s position. For months, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh has been forced into a hawkish posture by oil-driven inflation, with markets even pricing in a possible rate hike. As inflation falls, that pressure reverses entirely. The Fed can shift from discussing hikes to considering cuts. Each anticipated rate cut historically generates substantial gold ETF demand. A weaker dollar follows. And then gold’s structural forces — which never disappeared during the war — take full control.
Those structural forces are the most powerful in modern history. In 2025, gold set 53 all-time highs and central banks surpassed 5,000 tonnes of reserves for the first time ever. The annual average gold price rose 44% over 2024. Central banks are buying because of deteriorating sovereign debt, the loss of confidence in fiat currencies, and the strategic shift away from dollar reserves. None of these trends reversed during the war. They were merely masked by the temporary oil-inflation suppression. With that suppression now lifting, they can drive the price the way they drove it to $5,589 in January.
The institutional targets reflect this. Goldman Sachs maintains $5,400 by year-end — a 25% gain from today. J.P. Morgan reaffirmed $6,300 even after gold’s steepest decline since 1983, stating it remained “firmly bullishly convicted.” Deutsche Bank targets $6,000. UBS targets $6,200. From $4,325 today, these targets imply gains of 25% to 46% over the remainder of 2026.
The FOMC meeting tomorrow is the next catalyst. The war that suppressed gold is ending. The gateway to gold’s recovery is open, and it leads back toward — and likely beyond — January’s record.
24K: $139.07/gram | 22K: $127.48/gram | 21K: $121.66/gram
All prices USD. Monday June 15 indicative rates.
