Gold is on track to record a weekly loss of approximately 3% as Friday April 25 closes the books on one of the most dramatic weeks in the Hormuz conflict. The week that started with gold near $4,755 ends with the metal trading around $4,710 — pulled lower by a combination of forces that are unusual, powerful, and temporary.
The week’s defining moment came Thursday when President Trump posted on Truth Social that he had ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the strait and that minesweepers were clearing it “at a tripled up level.” The same day, the Pentagon confirmed it had seized a second Iranian oil tanker — the Majestic X — in the Indian Ocean, far from the Gulf. A third US aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, arrived in the region, bringing three full carrier strike groups to the theatre simultaneously. And the IEA’s Fatih Birol told CNBC the world faces “the biggest energy security threat in history.”
Gold’s response was to decline, not rally — because every new act of naval escalation keeps oil prices elevated, which feeds inflation, which feeds higher-for-longer interest rate expectations. The market’s current logic: war equals oil spike equals inflation equals no rate cuts equals stronger dollar equals lower gold. It is a chain reaction, and every link held this week.
The key to breaking that chain sits with the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meets April 28–29 — four days away. Chair Powell’s press conference on April 29 is the next major pivot point for the gold market. If he signals the Fed can cut despite oil-driven inflation, gold recovers. If he insists on patience, gold faces more pressure. Either way, the opening price of next week will look very different from this Friday’s close.
The grand gateway to gold ownership — at current prices — has rarely been wider.
