The US Dollar Index is trading at approximately 98.3 today, Wednesday April 22 — near pre-war levels, largely sideways, as the market tries to price a situation that changes every twelve hours. Yesterday, the dollar firmed on peace talk optimism and pushed gold down $41 to $4,763. This morning, the dollar is edging lower again as Iranian gunboats attacked three commercial vessels in the Gulf overnight and Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed it will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen under current conditions.
Gold spot is near $4,755, up roughly 1% from Tuesday’s close. Silver is also rising, up about 2% to near $78 per ounce. Oil is trading near $90–$98 a barrel — volatile but elevated — because the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows remains a war zone in practical terms. The energy price shock of the past weeks has not been without consequence for gold either: higher oil feeds higher inflation, which pushes the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated longer, which historically creates a headwind for gold. Yet gold has held above $4,750 despite all of this, a fact that speaks to the extraordinary depth of structural demand.
The Federal Reserve meets April 28–29 — one week from today. The rate will almost certainly stay at 3.50%–3.75%. What the market actually wants to hear from Chair Powell is whether the Fed sees any room to cut rates later in 2026. The CME probability tools are pricing cuts at the June or July meetings as live possibilities. If Thursday’s US PMI data comes in soft, that probability rises — and gold rises with it. If it comes in strong, the dollar firms and gold faces a test.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran is expiring soon. Trump has said he will not extend it without an agreement. No agreement is in sight. This is not a backdrop that suggests gold’s structural bid is going anywhere.
Today’s prices: 24K — $152.93/gram | 22K — $140.19/gram | 21K — $133.06/gram Prices in USD. Indicative only — please verify in store.
